Reducing knife crime in the West Midlands is both a challenge and an imperative. In the 12 months to March 2024, there were 7,000 recorded knife-related offences in the West Midlands, making this the region with the highest rate of knife crime per capita in England. Behind these numbers lie destroyed lives, broken families and frightened communities, so reducing knife-related offenses and other harmful crime is a top priority for West Midlands Police.

With funding from the Home Office, the force set up a new initiative, called Project Guardian, with the aim of using technology to identify hotspots of violent crime throughout the region. The force then planned to use this intelligence to precisely direct neighbourhood police officers to the right locations to help prevent harmful incidents, in a policing activity branded as Targeted Guardian Patrols.

After receiving training from the Jill Dando Institute, analysts at West Midlands Police began by using Esri’s ArcGIS Pro software to analyse data on knife crime and other violent offenses in the region over the last three years to identify hotspots of ‘harm’. This process resulted in the creation of an interactive map, showing circular hotspots of violent crime, each around 0.2 km in diameter.

Next, analysts conducted geospatial analysis of the last 100 offenses to identify ‘risky facilities’ like nightclubs, bus stations and fast-food outlets, within the hotspots, where there is a higher probability of a serious incident. They also used the 80/20 tool in ArcGIS Pro to identify the most criminogenic streets within hotspots. With these techniques, and others, the force succeeded in gaining an incredibly detailed understanding of violent crime, street by street and property by property.

To further strengthen its crime intelligence, the force incorporated harm scores into its analysis using the ArcGIS Pro density clustering tool. In this way, it was able to pinpoint the locations where high levels of harm occurred within and outside of the initial hotspots, identify specific premises associated with high harm and increase police patrols in these areas.

West Midlands Police is now using ArcGIS Pro to monitor changes in crime levels. It can repeat its ArcGIS Pro analysis and use techniques such as weighted displacement difference analysis to show the impact of tactical policing methods. It can then rapidly refocus its activities, as hot spots diminish in some areas and emerge in others, to stay one-step ahead in the fight against serious crime.

Compared to other geospatial analysis products used within the force, ArcGIS Pro is easier to use and offers more sophisticated functionality. “There are so many things in ArcGIS that make our analysis better, quicker and more accurate, ”says Katy Cox, a Higher Analyst working on Project Guardian. “ArcGIS also saves analyst time, which enables us to carry out more analysis and deliver additional intelligence to police officers.”

Deeper understanding of harm hotspots
Through the use of ArcGIS, West Midlands Police has improved its understanding of where most harmful crime occurs. It has, for example, discovered that 20% of harm, including stabbings, occurs in just 1.5% of the region. The map-based visuals, produced in ArcGIS Pro, make it easier for all police officers, throughout the force, to understand the analysis and see exactly which streets and locations present the highest risks for citizens.
 
Precise allocation of police resources
Using the new intelligence from ArcGIS, West Midlands Police can direct its Targeted Guardian Patrols to precisely the right locations, to help prevent more people from becoming victims. Analysis from ArcGIS Pro is used to inform location-specific SARA (Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment) plans, and has already contributed to a 16% reduction in violent crime across fifteen SARA areas.

Effective action to stop knife crime
ArcGIS-derived intelligence directly informed the locations of 35,000 hours of patrol between January 2024 and January 2025, leading to the siezure of over 500 weapons and 812 arrests. “Communities in the West Midlands are understandably deeply concerned about knife crime,” says Detective Chief Inspector (DCI) John Askew from West Midlands Police. “Our patrols can now act on intelligence from ArcGIS, focus their attention in the right places and help stop knife crime before it happens.”

Cost of crime reduced by over £13 million
While Project Guardian is primarily focused on reducing deaths and injuries from violence on streets, West Midlands Police is aware that its Targeted Guardian Patrols are also having an impact on crime in general and thereby reducing the cost of crime on society. Across all the Targeted Guardian Patrol Areas, West Midlands Police reports that its use of ArcGIS has helped it to reduce the annual cost of crime on society by over £13 million.

Improved collaboration with partners
West Midlands Police is able to share its analysis with partners, to support collaborative efforts to remove conditions that give rise to increased crime. For example, the analysis helps West Midlands Police to open conversations with local authorities about where they should make investments in street lighting, CCTV, trading standards enforcements and waste collection to create safer streets.